Top Closers Make The Difference

It is no coincidence that currently six of the seven top saves leaders are on teams that are in first place. The seventh, Eric Gagne, just saved his 51st game out of 51 save opportunities to move the Dodgers to just 2 1/2 games back in the National League Wild Card race, going into Monday’s action.
 
The list of the top closers starts with Gagne. Next is Atlanta’s John Smoltz with 44 saves out of 47 opportunities. He has been out of action since Aug. 27 but plans to be back in time for the playoffs. Atlanta is in first in the NL East by 9 1/2 games.
 
Houston is in first in the NL Central by two games, and their closer, Billy Wagner, has 43 saves out of 46 opportunities.
 
Oakland leads the American League West by three games, and Keith Foulke has 41 saves out of 46 opportunities.
 
Next is Mariano Rivera with 37 saves in 43 opportunities, leading the Yankees to a 5 1/2-game lead over Boston in the AL East.
 
Minnesota is tied for first with the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central, and the Twins’ closer, Eddie Guardado, has saved 36 out of a possible 39.
 
Finally, Tim Worrell of San Francisco has saved 33 games out of 40 opportunities to help lead the Giants to a 10 1/2-game lead in the NL West.
 
Good closers are hard to find. A great closer is like the Hope Diamond. You just can’t take a pitcher with a good ERA or a great fastball and tell him he’s going to close. There are a lot of pitchers who can start and give you five to six quality innings. There are relievers who can come in with a big lead or when you are behind in the game and give you one or two good innings.
 
But there are very few pitchers who can finish a game with a one-run lead and the winning run coming to the plate.
 
These guys are special. They are obsessed with an attitude that they have to have the ball in their hands with the game on the line. When they come in, the tying run is usually on base. They throw strikes and they rarely make mistakes.
 
They have ice water in their veins and they appear to have the attitude of an old, grizzly hunter, saying sometimes you get the bear and sometimes the bear gets you. They don’t appear to care, even though they do. They can shrug off a loss and be ready to pitch the next day.
 
Closers also offer baseball unique character and appearance. These guys are usually set apart from the team. The great Rollie Fingers had his handlebar mustache. There was Goose Gossage who looked like a wild mountain man, with arms and legs flailing as he put everything into every pitch. The Quiz — Dan Quisenberry — had his submarine delivery and Bruce Sutter had his unhittable splitter. Then there was Mike Marshall, with his short body, barrel chest, long sideburns and unbelievable screwball.
 
But the one who topped it all was the Mad Hungarian, Al Hrabosky. No one knew what he was going to do after his ritual of meditation and glove-slapping behind the mound.
 
Today’s best closers are Gagne, Smoltz, Wagner and Rivera. They are mild-looking compared to these men from the past, but they are truly dominating.
 
The most flamboyant is Gagne, with his beard and goggles. He wears the prescription goggles because of an old hockey injury. His presence on the mound, plus great command of at least four pitches, makes him formidable.
 
One statistic that is truly remarkable for him is his total of all bases he allows per inning pitched.
(If you add up his total bases, his hit by pitches, wild pitches and stolen bases allowed, then subtract his runners caught stealing along with the runners he picked off, you get a total of all bases allowed. If you then divide that total by innings pitched you get all bases allowed per inning pitched.)
 
Gagne has allowed an incredible 0.66 bases per inning. That’s two-thirds of a base allowed per inning. The closest any pitcher is to him is Wagner with 0.97 bases per inning and then Smoltz at 1.03. I recorded the top 12 saves leaders and all pitchers with 15 wins or more, and no one other than Gagne and Wagner was under 1.0.
 
Smoltz reminds me of a diplomat in a baseball uniform. His fastball is electric and his command of his offspeed pitches is phenomenal.
 
Smoltz has an incredible ERA of 0.89. Gagne is next at 1.33. The best ERA for a starter is San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt at 2.32.
 
I ran a statistic of hits given up per earned run, and Smoltz gives up an amazing 7.5 hits per earned run. Of the same sample of starters and closers from above, Rivera is second with 4.46 hits per earned run. The Cubs’ Mark Prior was the top starter with 3.11 hits per earned run.
 
The least imposing looking closer today has got to be Rivera. He is a clean-shaven whip of a man at 6-foot-2 and 170 pounds. What is imposing is his 94 mph cutter. He, amazingly, can dominate hitters with that one pitch. It is simply demoralizing to hitters to know what is coming and not be able to hit it. Rivera is a master at keeping the ball in zones that are hard to hit. The location and late break on the ball make him one of the most effective closers today.
 
Not only do the top closers dominate the statistics, they dominate the strategy of the game. If you are an opposing manager playing a team with one of these dominant closers, you know you are playing an eight-inning game at best, and if the closer is fresh, it is a seven-inning game. You must apply all the strategy you can to be ahead after seven innings or else the game is lost.
 
A team that is fortunate enough to have a great closer has a lot of pressure taken off of its offense. Knowing that if you are ahead after eight innings the game is virtually over allows hitters to relax more late in the game.
 
The opposite is also true. In 1982, I was fortunate enough to be a member of the California Angels, which was a great hitting club with several All-Stars in the everyday lineup. Unfortunately, we did not have that great closer, and the hitters had the feeling that we needed to keep scoring runs late in the game because we were going to give some runs up. That was a lot of daily pressure on the hitters, and although we won the AL West, we succumbed to the Milwaukee Brewers in the playoffs.
 
It is certainly not a fluke that every one of the division leaders right now has a closer having a good year. If you are trying to pick which teams are going to wind up in the World Series, you’d be well advised to start with the quality and toughness of their closer.
 
If the Dodgers were to make it to the World Series, Gagne would be a shoo-in for Most Valuable Player.
 
The Braves have the most balanced club in the NL, and the Yankees have the most World Series experience in the AL. I love great matchups. How about Smoltz verses Rivera in a ninth-inning tie in the seventh game of the World Series?
 
June 25, 2007
By Geoff Zahn Former Head Baseball Coach University of Michigan and 12 Year Major League Veteran Pitcher